In this week’s edition of Teen Politics: Weekly Politics Unpacked, I explain how the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire has been reached, but why more still needs to be done. I also cover the international agreements Russia has been making with Iran and Vietnam this week. And I encourage you to read an article on the BBC’s impartiality when it comes to Israel-Gaza, before ending with a way for you to call on your MP to suspend all arms sales to Israel.
A Week in Russian Diplomacy
Facing increasing isolation after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has attempted to mitigate this by reinforcing its relationships with countries in Asia, notably China. But on Tuesday (14th January), Russia and Vietnam agreed to increased cooperation on nuclear energy.
During Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s 2-day trip to Hanoi, he held talks with Pham Minh Chinh (Prime Minister of Vietnam), To Lam (General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party), Tran Thanh Man (chairman of the Vietnamese National Assembly), and President Luong Cuong. These talks produced, in the words of Mishustin, “a comprehensive plan for cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, which runs until 2030”.
As a part of which, Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company indirectly sanctioned by the USA, signed a cooperation agreement with EVN, Vietnam’s state-owned power company. This comes as Vietnam has been considering reintroducing plans for nuclear energy, after they were initially cast aside in 2016 over concerns about costs and safety. But in the context of ambitions to become self-sufficient in terms of energy and a need to decrease greenhouse emissions to meet international obligations, Vietnam is not alone in once again exploring nuclear energy production as an alternative to fossil fuels.
Although to many Russia may not appear to be the natural partner of Vietnam, they have in fact been close allies since 1950 when the communist leader Ho Chi Minh declared Vietnam independent from France. And in June 2024, the Russian President, Putin, whilst on a trip to Hanoi, agreed a roadmap for a new nuclear science and technology centre in Vietnam. But since the early 2000s, in efforts to diversify, Vietnam has steadily decreased its dependence on Russia for its arms supplies from a starting 80% to 60% of all military purchases in 2022. And interestingly, despite these efforts to divest from Russia and 2023 trade between the two nations worth just $3.6bn, Vietnam has approached Russia for help with their nuclear energy ambitions. This is instead of seeking support from the US, who have tried to assert internationally dominant expertise in the technology, and whose trade with Vietnam was worth $111bn in 2023. Ultimately, this represents a careful balancing act between the many spheres of influence which Vietnam is geographically subjected to, by bordering China, and the legacy of historical Cold War tension in South East Asia between Russia and the USA.
This tightrope Vietnam is forced to walk was further demonstrated by the announcement following Mishustin’s meeting with President Luong Cuong that Russia would facilitate Vietnam’s participation in BRICS as a “partner country”. BRICS was created by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, designed to counter the western G7 bloc of countries, and has since grown to include South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Indonesia. But there is some reluctance by Vietnam to fully commit to joining, considering the insignificant benefits of a risk which could distance the country from US support needed for development and, as mentioned previously, diversified arms suppliers.
But Russian diplomacy never stops, and on Friday (17th January), Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in the Kremlin to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” between the nations. Which according to Putin is a “real breakthrough creating conditions for the stable and sustainable development of Russia, Iran and the entire region”. Whilst Pezeshkian said a new chapter in relations, particularly trade, had been entered by this treaty.
The partnership has been years in the making, based on a periodically renewed agreement from 2001, and is expected to last for 20 years according to Kazem Jalali (the Iranian Ambassador to Russia). But pressure to sign an agreement has been heightened with the unpredictability of what Trump’s return to power will mean for the region as both countries appear to be some of the most heavily sanctioned in the world given their aggressive foreign policies — which Putin describes as challenging US-led “global hegemony”. And Russia’s consideration of Iran as a key strategic partner worries Western officials, as both are perceived to be destabilising forces to the international order. But seemingly aimed at the incoming US president, the Iranian President commented that regional problems should be solved only by Middle Eastern countries, accusing the US of “com[ing] from another side of the world to make chaos in the region”.
The importance of this “strategic partnership” to Russia can be seen by its inclusion of incredibly wide-ranging cooperation areas – everything from trade and military, to science, culture, and education. Although the specifics remain undisclosed, under the agreement, neither country will allow their territory to be used for threatening acts towards the other and provide no help to an aggressor. Importantly, there was no mutual defence clause, which is though to have been included in a treaty between North Korea and Russia and more recently invoked, explaining why North Korean troops are currently fighting in Ukraine.
Fundamentally, we will have to wait and see how Donald Trump handles the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East as to the extent to which this partnership may be potentially further increased or invoked, especially as Tehran feels its “Axis of Resistance” under threat throughout the region.
A Ceasefire is Just the Beginning
As I am sure you appreciate, this situation is incredibly volatile, so has the ability to change incredibly quickly, therefore please note the details will have been correct at the time of writing.
When it comes to Israel-Gaza, the key dates on the diplomatic timeline up to now include 21st November 2023, when a US, Qatari, and Egyptian brokered week-long ceasefire involved the release of 105 hostages by Hamas and 240 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, but the truce soon collapsed. At the end of May 2024, US President Joe Biden outlined an Israeli proposal for a 3-phase ceasefire and hostage release deal, which was supported by the UN Security Council shortly after. But on 20th November, the US vetoed a draft Security Council resolution which called for an immediate ceasefire. Reigniting hope for peace in Gaza, Israel agreed a ceasefire with Lebanon on 27th November 2024, encouraging Biden to make further mediation efforts. Additional motivation was provided shortly after by Trump’s warning of “all hell to pay” if the hostages had not been released by the time he takes office on 20th January 2025.
This finally brings us to Wednesday 15th January, when Qatar’s Prime Minister announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire and hostage release deal, modelled largely upon Biden’s initial proposal, which is planned to take effect on Sunday 19th January. Crucially, this depended upon the approval of the deal by the full Israeli cabinet and its security cabinet, which was gained by a vote of 24 in favour to 8 against in the early hours of Saturday. This comes after a meeting lasting more than 6 hours and threats from hardline national security minister Itamar Ben-Givr to quit the government if the agreement was ratified, encouraging his allies to stop the deal before it reached the full cabinet.
The first phase of the deal is set to last for 42 days from Sunday and involve the release of 33 hostages by Hamas, including women, children, and those over 50. The release should then be reciprocated by Israel’s release of 50 Palestinian prisoners per female Israeli solder released, and 30 per other female hostages. This first phase has been confirmed by Emmanuel Macron to include the release of 2 French-Israeli citizens by Hamas, while Israel’s justice ministry released a list of 95 Palestinians to be exchanged in the first phase, comprising 25 male prisoners (all under 21), and 70 female prisoners.
However, it must be made clear that this is not the end of anything, and has in fact come after over a year of genocide.
In the words of Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), this is “only a starting point”. And another UN official commented that whilst this is “a moment of hope and opportunity … we should be under no illusions how tough it will still be to get support to survivors”. Therefore, “rapid, uninterrupted, and unhindered” humanitarian access to the “tremendous suffering” in Gaza is essential.
I am also very worried looking at the sustainability of any ceasefire agreement for a variety of reasons. Firstly, Israel has shown disregard for them previously. Also, the evidenced and established genocidal intent of Israeli authorities is unlikely to be significantly or meaningfully wavered by any agreement. Importantly, additionally, there is an evident lack of an enforcement mechanism to effectively confront any violations, especially seen as Israel has readily enjoyed the steadfast support of the USA in all of its violations of international humanitarian law so far.
And now, just because fighting and bombing may halt for a time, it doesn’t mean to say we suddenly forget the many acts of genocide perpetrated by Israel. Instead, now more than ever, we are bound by our humanity to fight for justice and the liberation of the Palestinian people. Pressure on western states must be maintained to hold them accountable for their complicity and participation in genocide, and further ensure they seek to enforce the rulings of the International Court of Justice and the arrest warrants of the International Criminal Court. Regardless, any return to a semblance of normality, which is near impossible given the grave humanitarian catastrophe before us, is an imposed state of apartheid itself.
Weekly Recommendation and Action
Given the often polarised and divisive issues we find ourselves encountering, it’s more important than ever to acknowledge the biases of our news sources and scrutinise claimed impartiality. Therefore, in light of a 9000-word report released by journalist Owen Jones on the BBC’s coverage of Israel-Gaza, I would like to recommend you read this opinion article in openDemocracy written by several academics on why they don’t think the BBC is impartial when it comes to Israel-Gaza.
As the ceasefire detailed above must only be the start of more to follow, it is crucial the UK suspends all of its arms sales to Israel. And to maintain this pressure on the government, I would encourage you to follow Amnesty International’s email writing call to action.
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